Flat betting is not the best option for horse betting or any other type of betting. . . However, the topic of this article is a bit controversial: Raising wagers after losses.
Gamblers Ruin is a term that refers to a loss in betting bankroll. It’s not as frightening as it sounds. Although it is something to avoid, it is not the “ruin of the horsebettor”. However, it will keep him from the game until a new bankroll is built.
Gamblers can only ruin themselves by using the “Martingale” method, which doubles up every loss. Gamblers who stick to the even-money bets, such as Roulette, will be at a disadvantage of 1.5 percent. A player who has a large bankroll can make a “Martingale”-style betting system work for several days, weeks or even months.
However, sooner or later, a long and vicious losing streak will occur which will make it impossible for the gambler to place the next wager. This could be because his bankroll is severely depleted or because he lacks the courage to do so.
Example: Let’s say that his starting stake is $5.00 and that he has a losing streak for 15 consecutive days. These are the bets that must be placed to double up on every loss.
5 – 10 – 20 – 40 -80 – 160 – 320 – 640 – 1280 – 2560 – 5120 – 10,240 – 20,480 – 40,960 – 81,920
. . . 16 would cost $163,840 to make his original $5.00 wager and still earn $5.00 profit. !
It is obvious that it is insane.
A 15-race losing streak in horse racing is not uncommon for win-betting, especially if you are betting on higher-paying horses.
If you only played 4-5, 1-1 and 6-5 types to simulate the even money roulette bets a 15-race streak might not happen. A 10 race losing streak is rare. But, hey, how about chasing down a 10 race streak while doubling up to make some profit on your original wager?
You would have a terrible return on your investment!
However, a player could scale back from the “doubling-up” betting mode. There have been many variations on this theme before.
Look for a horse that has a high winning percentage, such as 35% or more. Flat bet until a losing streak of at least five races has passed. Then, you can start the betting progression. The progression is then repeated until the series has been “cleared”. You can then recover your losses and make a profit.
But the visions of Martingalemaniac sweating blood while he stands up to place his next “bridge jumper-sized” bet keep coming back. He is trying to get back to EVEN!
A winning (hit/strike rate) percentage that exceeds 40 (or even 50%) is better. Before you make the next step, be sure that your percentage is stable.
This restricts the approach to place and show betting.
Let’s suppose you have a handicapping system that hits 32% winners at $7.60 per mutuel. Your ROI is around +21%.
The same horse betting could be expected to win or place (pay-to-place) approximately 60% of the times. On average, the place bet would return $3.80. This is how your ROI would look: 60 winning bets out of 100 pay you $3.80. So $228 return on $200 bet = +4% ROI.
There are no great bragging rights here – but a betor could use a progression that would likely boost that ROI enough to make a decent horse racing income – if they wanted. . .